At Strategy Management, our team thrives on the pulse of political strategy and electoral dynamics. With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, we decided to take a swing at forecasting the outcome by polling our own diverse team of experts, analysts, and strategists. Here's our predictions, offering a fascinating (and in some cases outlandish) mosaic of what the electoral map might look like come election night.
The Traditionalist's View - Jared:
Our resident historian with a knack for traditional voting patterns, predicts a map that largely adheres to historical trends. He sees the Northeast and West Coast remaining blue, with California, New York, and Illinois firmly in Democratic hands. The South, he believes, will continue holding for the Republicans, with states like Texas and Florida leaning Republican, albeit with some tightening margins due to demographic shifts, but expects Georgia to flip from 2020. Jared expects Pennsylvania to save the day for Trump while Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada to be in the hands of Harris.
I predict President Trump will win the election. Trump will carry Georgia and North Carolina, especially after the Biden-Harris response to Hurricane Helene, he will carry Pennsylvania due to Harris' flip-flops on energy policy, and Trump's border policies will help him win Arizona. Polling in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona has consistently given President Trump a slight edge, while polling in Pennsylvania has been statistically tied since Harris has been in the race and President Trump has historically over-performed the polling average there.
The Digital Mind's Projection - Laura:
Armed with reams of digital ads and reams of digital data, Laura has a more nuanced prediction. She points to swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as critical battlegrounds, as many have been saying. Her map suggest that these states could swing either way, depending on turnout and voter sentiment towards economic trends post any natural crises. Laura's map shows Arizona holding blue and Pennsylvania swinging red, along with Georgia.
This election is proving to be a tight race, but ultimately I think Trump will pull through to victory by a slight margin.
Concise, Laura, we like it.
The Resident 'Outsider' - Lexi:
Politically audacious. Consistently unpredictable. Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. All red. Georgia and Arizona? Blue, says Lexi. Will 'No tax on tips' be the key to a Trump win in Nevada along with middle-east protest votes making the edge winnable for Trump in Michigan? Does a Trump/Kemp riff keep Georgia in the hands of Harris while Arizona's party infrastructure save the day for Harris in Arizona? Lexi say so. A bold map, to say the least.
I do not come from the world of politics, but the world of education. This is the first presidential election I have followed closely, and learning how to follow trends, read polling results, and watching the pendulum shift between both candidates has been so interesting. I have really learned the importance of doing your research and knowing who and what you’re voting for. That being said, based on my beginner level research and the help of the awesome team here at Strategy Management, I do believe that Trump is going to win this election. While it has been and is likely to remain close, I think Trump has enough of an edge in many of the swing states to ultimately win.
The Airline-Points Specialist - Blake:
With his eye on electoral politics, albeit, usually from the window of an airplane, Blake argues that economic issues, the border, and social conceptual issues could dramatically influence voter sentiment. He predicts that states such as Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all swing states, will ultimately swing right, while Arizona and Michigan will fall left.
Donald Trump is set to win the presidency by a narrow margin, as key battlegrounds like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania see firsthand the destruction Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have caused over the past three and a half years. State races are further exposing Democrat incumbents with radical views, who are destroying the very fabric of what America was built on—pushing high taxes, stripping parental rights, allowing boys to compete in girls’ sports, and leaving our southern border unsecured while putting national security at risk. As families struggle under a rollercoaster economy and inflation, they are turning to Trump and Republicans to restore the values and stability this country was founded on.
The ADHDventurist - Dalton:
With a strong focus on economic indicators and immigration, Dalton suggests that market recovery, job growth, and border highlight messaging will be the biggest influencers. He sees a scenario where strong economic performance could have secures swing states like Pennsylvania for Harris, but, his map shows a prediction that tracks with lackluster job numbers and porous border policies having a major effect. With the heartland states possibly staying as they have been for years past, Dalton shows Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia being just enough gas to get Trump back to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
It'll be a squeeker, thats for sure. However, with Trump showing steady numbers that average higher than the two cycles past, strong US Senate Candidates in many of the crucial battleground states, and a stronger grassroots infrastructure in various swing states, I think he'll pull through. I do believe, although not reflected on the map, that there will likely be a surprising showing from Trump and other GOP candidates on the ballot in Wisconsin. Just not sure if it'll be enough. We'll see.
Head of Paw-ductivity - Winnie:
Needless to say, Winnie is feeling pretty confident in a Trump win, come November. She says that Trump's leash-leadership, compared to that of Biden and Harris will ultimately make the difference. Indicating every state will pick Trump, Winnie clearly believes voters have a bone to pick with the Harris-Walz ticket after leaving the border in a tail-spin. Winnie is dog-gone determined that this map will come to fur-ition on election day, mainly due to the Trump team's bark-eting strategy to reach young, minority, and traditionally blue union voters across the country.
Since Winnie is a Dog, we were unable to receive a comment at the time of publishing.
Conclusion: A Patchwork of Possibilities
From these diverse perspectives, it's clear that the 2024 electoral map could be painted with a variety of colors, each scenario plausible depending on a multitude of factors including economic conditions, social movements, foreign policy, and digital engagement. Here at Strategy Management, we're not just waiting for election night; we're actively shaping strategies that could influence this map in real-time.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights as we approach one of the most anticipated electoral battles in recent history. Remember, in politics, nothing is certain until the votes are counted, but with these predictions, we have a clearer picture of the dynamic, ever-changing landscape of American electoral politics.