Polling Memo: Nelson Leads in Alabama House District 38 Special Republican Primary Election; Could Avoid Potential Runoff
- Polling
- Sep 9
- 3 min read
To: Interested Parties
From: Dalton Dismukes | Strategy Management, LLC
Date: September 10, 2025
Subject: Analysis of Public Opinion Survey – Alabama House District 38 Special Republican Primary
Overview
A public opinion survey conducted among likely Republican Primary voters in Alabama’s House District 38 provides insights into voter preference among declared Republican candidates ahead of the October 21st, 2025 Special Primary to fill the seat of former Representative Debbie Wood, who recently stepped down. The survey shows candidate Kristen Nelson holding a large lead in both the initial and forced ballot tests against candidates Garrett Dixon and Micah Messer.
Key Findings
➡ Name ID and Image: Survey respondents were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of multiple elected officials, key stakeholders, and of course the three candidates in the race for AL HD38. Dixon is shown to have 24.26% total name ID, Messer holds a total name ID of 24%, and Nelson appears to be the only candidate with a total name ID exceeding 50% at 52% overall.
➡ The Ballot Tests: In the initial ballot test, respondents were asked who they would vote for if the election were today and given the three choices of candidates as well as an undecided option. On this ballot test, Kristen Nelson held 41.09% of the vote, Garrett Dixon held 10.55% (-30.54%), Messer had 6.18% (-34.91%), and Undecideds took the slight plurality of 42.18% (+1.09%).Following the initial ballot test, respondents were asked to answer a forced ballot question, choosing between only the three candidates, as undecided was not an option. Nelson extended her lead to 60.73%, Dixon’s vote share increased to 21.82% (-38.91%), with Messer growing to 17.45% (-43.28%).
Among men, Nelson led the initial ballot with 40.15%, Dixon at 12.12% (-28.03%), and Messer held 5.3% (-34.85%).
Among women, Nelson led with 41.96%, Dixon at 9.09% (-32.87%), and Messer came in at 6.99% (-34.97%).
Among voters 55+, Nelson led at 37.43%, Dixon at 12.3% (-25.13%), and Messer had 6.42% (-31.01%).
➡ The Undecided Voter: Undecided voters had a clear and measurable preference in this survey. When asked who they would vote for in the forced ballot question, referenced above, those who indicated themselves as undecided on the initial ballot question responded with 48.28% saying they would vote for Nelson, 26.72% (-21.56%) selecting Dixon, and 25% (-23.28%) choosing Messer.
➡ Top Issues: Participants in this survey indicated “Cutting taxes & reducing spending” (20.73%), “Investing in schools & enhancing education” (19.27%), and “Fighting crime & increasing public safety" (18.18%) were their top issues. These priorities were consistent among the general sample as well as undecided voters.
Conclusion
Kristen Nelson enters the Special Republican Primary in HD38 as the clear candidate to beat thus far, holding a decisive lead among every age group, gender, affinity, and propensity. With roughly 42% still undecided, there is plenty of room to grow for all three candidates, however, for Dixon and Messer, the hill to overcome Nelson’s current lead is quite steep. With more than 60% of undecided voters residing in Lee County, it is clear that Nelson has solidified her base in Chambers County and could certainly run away with this race unless Dixon or Messer begin to coalesce the Lee County portion of the electorate soon.
Methodology
This survey was conducted by Strategy Management, LLC, a Montgomery, AL based political consulting firm. The survey was conducted from September 8-9, 2025. The survey utilized a mixed-modal collection method of live telephone interviews and Text-to-Web. The survey has a sample of n275 and holds a margin of error of approximately ±5.9% at a 95% confidence interval.
Strategy Management is not associated with any of the three campaigns or candidates included in this survey. The survey was conducted independently without the request of any candidate or campaign included in this survey.
View the Toplines of the survey here.
